- The housing market is in trouble: Home sales dropped in every month of 2018 except for February, Business Insider’s Alex Morrell reported.
- A bad housing market is a bad indicator for the overall economy.
- But there’s one particular day that Glenn Kelman, CEO of the online real-estate brokerage Redfin, says sets the tone of the year’s real-estate outlook: Super Bowl Sunday.
Super Bowl Sunday is a long-awaited moment for sports fans across the US — but it’s also an indicator of how the year’s housing market will perform.
That’s according to Glenn Kelman, CEO of the online real-estate brokerage Redfin, based in Seattle.
NPR’s Stacey Vanek Smith spoke to Kelman last month on a segment of the podcast “The Indicator From Planet Money.” When Smith asked him if he expected 2018 to end with a whimper or a bang, Kelman gave an answer that was simple but definite: a whimper.
While the downward trend could smooth out in 2019, “a deeper drought in housing is dark news for just about everybody, not just the banks,” Business Insider’s Alex Morell reported. “Significant housing declines have foreshadowed nine of the 11 post-World War II recessions in the US, according to another note by UBS from December examining the housing slowdown.”
And there’s one weekend that Kelman says will indicate the direction of the market: the weekend of the Super Bowl, which is this Sunday.
“That weekend is the weekend where the housing market either goes crazy or it takes a nap,” Kelman said on NPR, later referring to the weekend as a sort of “Groundhog Day for the housing market.”
“What I’ll be watching that weekend is just how many people are touring houses and, on Sunday night, how many of them decide to make an offer,” Kelman continued.
2019 has already seen several notable real-estate transactions. Most recently, the billionaire hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin shattered the US real-estate record with the purchase of a $238 million New York penthouse, topping the $137 million Hamptons mansion that the hedge-fund manager Barry Rosenstein purchased in 2014.
That news, however, followed a decline in home sales in 2018 that reached every region of the US, including the Hamptons.